Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 36.669407 39.868471 43.394126 47.602663 52.536724 58.198832 65.279226
2025-05-25 31.987169 35.965858 40.615363 46.550958 54.083699 63.560427 76.805772
2025-06-01 28.412569 32.566284 37.589114 44.268497 53.184491 65.119631 83.203128
2025-06-08 26.091488 30.349337 35.636563 42.900441 53.009610 67.284553 90.563503
2025-06-15 24.934605 29.430978 35.165366 43.312647 55.165254 72.921618 104.486540
2025-06-22 23.741049 28.342702 34.335708 43.083405 56.285028 77.094921 117.120719
2025-06-29 22.411167 26.970593 32.997819 41.969000 55.880602 78.679362 125.399211
2025-07-06 21.156032 25.617100 31.582475 40.598026 54.883280 79.047791 131.303967
2025-07-13 21.021433 25.757902 32.234713 42.322875 59.020923 89.204375 162.788536
2025-07-20 20.371966 25.146394 31.766992 42.278994 60.181747 94.034245 184.121862
2025-07-27 20.304058 25.334664 32.456259 44.095405 64.810252 106.926377 237.611399
2025-08-03 19.948199 25.089025 32.479087 44.823606 67.557895 116.585955 291.308444
2025-08-10 19.452953 24.711151 32.418008 45.659017 71.174134 130.901841 395.744901
2025-08-17 18.564120 23.715089 31.348523 44.678313 71.063219 136.052176 472.544436
2025-08-24 17.501170 22.407091 29.709340 42.544189 68.227954 132.845837 491.681715
2025-08-31 16.711760 21.470164 28.601110 41.262766 67.038290 134.130075 554.266250
2025-09-07 16.341671 21.140569 28.431622 41.649050 69.534268 147.652811 809.001789
2025-09-14 15.878766 20.646172 27.963013 41.434244 70.639906 157.405189 1147.799000
2025-09-21 15.286994 19.929508 27.092595 40.389318 69.641602 159.421184 1408.996172
2025-09-28 14.686627 19.178025 26.130627 39.102226 67.900820 158.134772 1606.224294
2025-10-05 14.668990 19.323255 26.656126 40.721255 73.577310 189.779766 7584.389854
2025-10-12 14.352611 18.987630 26.353901 40.680101 75.032247 204.874930 178972.242782
2025-10-19 14.348226 19.141303 26.890002 42.382153 81.576266 253.160107 NaN